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Australias science budget uninspiring
A paper published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences claims that "Australia's climate sensitivity" is the lowest recorded for the past decade, a result that may be influenced by a lack of funding from the Commonwealth's science and technology budget.
The paper, "The Australia climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases and temperature change: Is it as low as reported?" uses a statistical model that produces a model-driven figure that, over the course of a century, varies as much as 6 degrees of climate sensitivity ” the lowest point on that chart, the researchers claim, is an uninspiring 3.1 degrees.
Climate models have simulated variations in the sensitivity of the climate system to human emissions and other forces that include solar and volcanic activity.
Researchers have looked at this figure over the last 40 years, in the period between 1951 to 1980.
And climate experts are confident climate model forecasts of climate sensitivity ” the measure researchers use to measure whether the climate is changing at a certain rate ” are accurate.
However, the results on this graph were very optimistic compared to past research.
"There's a pretty good consensus around it," said Rob Jones of Australia's national science agency, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which is the chief scientist for the study. "There's a large uncertainty there about the model performance."
But, he said, the study also showed that the model performance over the years was "quite impressive."
The model runs included the mid-30s, the high 20s, the mid 40s and high 50s. The models used to generate the figure, according to the paper, didn't run at any higher temperatures than the surface. But the models ran at 1 to 3 million years ago ” much earlier than the average time frame to generate such a large and unexpected result.
Jones said the paper "seems a bit of a mess because it's so far away from a peer-reviewed scientific paper" in scientific circles, a standard part of scientific work.
This study also makes comparisons with the most conservative estimates in the world ” that 1.8 degrees warming above preindustrial averages would be catastrophic.
To arrive at a climate sensitivity, scientists use temperature records from past climate models that assume humans have a strong enough impact on the climate system to make the results significant.
This model is known as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's assessment. (Photo: AP)
For the latest study, researchers relied on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's current analysis, which used a range of global and regional greenhouse gas and ocean concentration estimates, along with global and regional carbon dioxide concentrations (greenhouse gas equivalent, or CO 2 ) levels, which have been know
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... 2020/05/29(Fri) 19:02 No.579
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